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WIZARD'S LUCKY 13 HANDICAPPING TIPS
- First and foremost, come to terms with the fact that unless you
put in numerous hours at the handicapping grindstone, and employ a
systematic approach to this endeavor, you'll be lighter in the wallet and
heavier of heart come season's end.
- Realize that beneath the Wizard's glamorous, "high-profile" veneer is
a man who spends countless lonely hours slaving over stats, power ratings,
emotional edges, etc.. Success has its' price and if you're not willing to
pay it, play the nickel & dime office pools and stay out of Vegas.
- Don't let a bad weekend or two mess with your mind. View your
handicapping as a multi-seasonal endeavor, and realize that down weeks are
inevitable. By heeding this tip, you'll avoid rookie mistakes like swaying
from your established systematic analysis, or "trying to make it all back
on one game," and in the process watching your significant other become
not-so-significant. Now for some of you, this might not be a bad
thing, but that is for another tips topic......
- Some of the best line value can be found in the early season, so
intensive summer analysis is vital to take advantage of Vegas' early
season overlays. If you purchase no other preseason publication, buy Phil
Steele's "College Football Preview." It has light years more info than the
preseason pretenders such as Athlon's and Street and Smith's. WW
recommends obtaining as much handicapping material as possible, for as in
all endeavors, information is power.
- Speaking of the preseason, develop a preseason statistical outlook for
each team, and assign an overall power rating based on that assessment.
Purchase "College Football Handicapping- A Professional Approach" by Trace
Fields for ideas on development of power ratings and approaches to
preseason analysis. That book should be in the literary arsenal of every
serious college football handicapper.
- Play no more than 5-7 games per week! The oddsmakers are very good at
setting lines (those lavish Vegas casinos are there for a reason), but
good line value can still be found. Rarely will more than 5-7 games per
week stand out as playable by the studious 'capper.
- Do all you can to get access to multiple lines! Getting an extra point
here and there over the course of the season can make the difference
between a winning and losing year. Rookies think that a point or
half-point won't matter and see the effort it takes to shop for lines to
be a waste of time. Believe this grizzled vet, it IS worth your time
and effort!
- There are three types of handicapping and they are as follows:
fundamental, emotional, and historical. These go by different names, but
the aforementioned labels are the most straightforward. Fundamental
analysis is assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the teams, along
with overall talent. Emotional analysis is looking at factors such as
let-downs after a big game, looking ahead to a huge rivalry game, and
payback to a team that rubbed it in late in last year's game. Historical
analysis is stuff like Ohio State is 14-1 against the line their last 15
in August and September.
- Put you main emphasis on fundamental and emotional analysis. The Wiz
puts more emphasis on emotional factors than most other handicappers,
especially those doing the NFL. These are 19-23 year old kids who are much
more prone to the emotional ebbs and flows of a season than NFL'ers with
their guaranteed contracts.
- Always include special teams analysis in your handicapping repertoire.
WW learned this the hard way during his formative years.
- Never put too much stock in a team's performance in a single game.
Much to Vegas' delight, most gamblers are enticed by a team who looked
great the previous week (thee old recency effect). The oddsmakers will
adjust the lines to reflect this effect, and in the process the team in
question will have poor line value. Plus, last week's "great" team usually
comes back down to earth the following week and fails to cover.
- Keep abreast of injuries, suspensions, fights in practice, and
weather. In our burgeoning information age there's no excuse to do
otherwise. To be meteorologically uninformed is especially inexcusable!
- If you can't be objective about a team and/or a conference, don't
even think of playing on, or against, the team(s) involved. The Wiz rarely
plays LSU for he has a huge place in his heart for the Bengal Tigers as a
result of several evenings on the Nebraska prairie manipulating the car's
antenna to pick up those riveting SEC thrillers from the Tiger Pit in the
late 70's and early 80's. As the Wiz wipes a tear from his eye in memory
of those great daze of yesteryear, he warns you to play with your mind,
not with your heart.
On that melancholy note, the Wiz brings an end to his tips section.
Hopefully they will be of aid to those who delve into one of life's most
delightful and challenging endeavors- college football handicapping. Best
of luck this season.
Subscription Info |
'98 Preseason
Analysis |
THIS WEEK'S PICKS |
Results/Previous Picks |
Bio/Mission |
'99 Schedules |
Studs & Buffoons |
Neuheisel |
Handicapper Resources |
Football Links |
Guestbook |
FAQ |
E-mail |
Home