Those of you acquainted with the Wiz know that he stresses the merits of playing against teams with head coaches in their virginal seasons with their squads. Below he explains why and presents some recent spread numbers that reinforce the need to keep maiden mentors in mind when handicapping. Please note that the stats presented below include the major board teams (excluding the MAC and Big West).
New coaches face challenges above and beyond those of coaches that have several years at their respective schools. They must get to know upwards of 100 players and evaluate them during the ten or so weeks of spring and August camps. Beyond the usual coaching duties of assessing talent, matching schemes with personnel and molding the team into a cohesive unit; new coaches are learning the protocol of the organization, developing their recruiting program, moving their families to a new location, and dealing with the numerous challenges we all face when beginning a new job.
Accompanying most new coaches are a slew of new assistants, new schemes on both sides of the ball, and new numbering systems. To most players, the new schemes and numbering systems initially read like ancient Chinese, yet require mastery within a short period of time. College football players are seldom among the sharper knives in the cutlery collection, and the few months of spring and August camps are woefully inadequate for them to master a new system.
First-year coaches frequently face the ire of players who were recruited by the old staff and are none-too-happy with the changing of the guard. Also, the cupboard is often left relatively bare by the outgoing coach (more on this later).
Below are spread records over the last six years for major board teams with a head coach in his first year at the school:
Year Spread Record
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1998 48-55-3 (46.6%)
1997 106-117 (47.5%)
1996 26-40-1 (39.4%)
1995 86-91-2 (48.6%)
1994 51-39 (56.6%)
1993 44-60-1 (42.3%)
Overall Spread Record ('93-'98): 361-402-7 (47.3%)
Teams with maiden mentors went just 47.3% ATS over the last six seasons. Playing against these teams woulda produced a 52.7% covering clip, which isn't earth-shattering, but is a solid enough number to justify keeping first-year mentors in mind when doing your 'capping.
A colleague in Las Vegas suggested looking at why the head coach left the team, which is often a product of how much talent is returning the following season. More specifically, coaches that "go out on top" such as Osborne and Mack Brown did after the '97 season, usually depart when their teams are losing several studs, knowing they'll be weaker the next season. Note that the Huskers went 13-0 in '97 and 9-4 in '98, while North Carolina went 11-1 in '97 and 7-5 in '98 (straight-up records).
This is not an unfamiliar phenomenon in college grids. The head coach puts together a hot team, loaded with seniors who have a great season. He realizes with the seniors leaving, and maybe a stud underclassman or two with them, that he'd better capitalize on the public perception of him as a great coach. Therefore he leaves the school for a better-paying, more prestigious pro or college gig (Mack Brown.) Or like Tommy O, calls it a career going out on the mountain top.
In addition to a relatively thin crop of talent, the outgoing coach leaves the new guy a program with lofty expectations, which means stiffer imposts from the Vegas books.
So I looked at the spread records from '93-'98 for teams with first-year mentors whose predecessors left them a relatively bare cupboard. To operationally define a bare cupboard, I chose teams who had won seven or more games straight-up the year before the new coach arrived.
Granted, once in a while you'll see a team get seven or more wins and the coach being forced out, which in theory wouldn't leave the his predecessor with a bare cupboard. But those scenarios are the exceptions, and seemingly should not skew the data, which is presented below:
Year Spread Record
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1998 11-22-3 (33.3%)
1997 15-22 (40.5%)
1996 6-5 (54.5%)
1995 21-25-1 (45.6%)
1994 16-16 (50.0%)
1993 13-19 (40.6%)
Overall Spread Record ('93-'98): 82-109-4 (42.9%)
The above numbers illustrate that teams struggle ATS with first-year coaches that inherit lofty expectations and a team relatively thin in the cupboard. Playing against these teams woulda produced a snappy 57.1% cover rate over that six-year period.
Extrapolating from the seven or more win theory presented above, maiden mentors of teams with six or less straight-up wins the prior year usually follow coaches that were forced out, theoretically leaving a relatively well-stocked cupboard. Also, because of their team's recent woes, a first-year coach of a six or less win team the prior year faces lower expectations from Vegas, so the lines are usually kinder than those for virginal coaches of teams coming off good seasons. So in theory, these six or less win coaches should fare better ATS than their counterparts, and they do as they went 279-293-3 (48.8%) from '93-'98.
Given my belief that sizable strides are often made between years one and two in a head coach's tenure, I looked at the ATS record of second-year coaches over the six-year span from '93-'98 and was surprised to find they went 383-382-9 (50%). That's just a 2.7% improvement over first-year coaches over that same period which is less than I anticipated.
In conclusion, the analysis above reinforces my contention that maiden mentors have trouble ATS, especially those facing high expectations and harboring a relatively weak stable of talent. While it's important to know which teams have new coaches, it's even more important to know why the preceding coach left, and the talent, or lack thereof, he left the incoming coach.
Remember that a coach's tenure at his school is but one of several things to assess when doing your handicapping. Making a selection based on one piece of analysis, without assessing the array of fundamental, psychological and historical factors, is like choosing a partner based on his/her looks. It's a seemingly easy decision that requires little time & effort, but will more than likely have you singing the ol' HeeHaw classic "Gloom, Despair & Agony On Me." And the Wiz wants none of his readers experiencing deep dark depression, excessive misery.
Below are the first-year coaches of the major board teams for the 1999 season. Next to each team is its straight-up record in 1998. Based on the above, teams that figure to face troubled pointspread waters in '99 are Tulane, Miami, Ohio and to a lesser degree, Ole Miss and Colorado.
Best of luck in the upcoming season.
School Former Coach New Coach
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Auburn (3-8) Oliver/Bowden Tommy Tuberville
Baylor (2-9) Dave Roberts Kevin Steele
Clemson (3-8) Tommy West Tommy Bowden
Colorado (8-4) Golden Boy Gary Barnett
Duke (4-7) Fred Goldsmith Carl Franks
Hawaii (0-12) Fred vonAppen June Jones
Iowa (3-8) Hayden Fry Kirk Ferentz
La. Tech (6-6) Gary Crowton Jack Bicknell, Jr.
Miami Ohio (10-1) Randy Walker Terry Hoeppner
Mississippi (7-5) Tommy Tuberville David Cutcliffe
NE Louisiana (5-6) Ed Zaunbrecher Bobby Keasler
Northwestern (3-9) Gary Barnett Randy Walker
Oklahoma (5-6) John Blake Bob Stoops
Oregon St (5-6) Mike Riley Dennis Erickson
So. Carolina (1-10) Brad Scott Lou Doltz
Tulane (12-0) Tommy Bowden Chris Scelfo
UNLV (0-11) Jeff Horton John Robinson
Washington (6-6) Jim Lambright Golden Boy